Publications of the institutes and centres - University of Applied Sciences of the Grisons

Abstract: In dieser Arbeit stellen wir dar, inwieweit die Petrinetztheorie mit ihren Konzepten einen Beitrag zur Beschreibung soziologischer Phänomene leisten kann und wie sie im DFG-Projekt "Agieren in sozialen Kontexten" (ASKO) zur Fundierung der vom ASKO-Projekt entwickelten Architektur eines sozionischen Agentensystems grundlegend eingesetzt wird.

Abstract: Das Schweizerische Wirtschaftsarchiv in Basel unterhält seit seiner Gründung 1910 Dokumentationen zur Wirtschaftsentwicklung und Wirtschaftspolitik in der Schweiz. Diese Dokumentationen enthalten vor allem graue Literatur sowie Zeitungsausschnitte zu den dokumentierten rund 4000 Sachfragen.

Abstract: Gentechnologie ist unabhängig von ihrer praktischen Anwendung immer auch eine Informationstechnologie. Sie dient beispielsweise zur Personenidentifikation, zur Bestimmung von Verwandschaftsverhältnissen oder zur Abklärung des Potentials von Erbkranheiten. Urs Dahinden beschreibt eine Umfrage, die über die Motive und Argumentationsmuster der Bevölkerung Aufschluss geben kann. Wieviel wollen Menschen überhaupt über ihre genetische Veranlagung wissen? Auf welche Informationen möchten sie bewusst verzichten? Die Befragung verschiedener Fokusgruppen kann mögliche Wege aufzeigen, wie Institutionen mit der Bevölkerung kommunizieren können.

Abstract: Integrated assessment (IA) can be defined as a structured process of dealing with complex issues, using knowledge from various scientific disciplines and/or stakeholders, such that integrated insights are made available to decision makers (J. Rotmans, Enviromental Modelling and Assessment 3 (1998) 155). There is a growing recognition that the participation of stakeholders is a vital element of IA. However, only little is known about methodological requirements for such participatory IA and possible insights to be gained from these approaches. This paper summarizes some of the experiences gathered in the ULYSSES project, which aims at developing procedures that are able to bridge the gap between environmental science and democratic policy making for the issue of climate change. The discussion is based on a total of 52 IA focus groups with citizens, run in six European and one US city. In these groups, different computer models were used, ranging from complex and dynamic global models to simple accounting tools. The analysis in this paper focuses on the role of the computer models. The findings suggest that the computer models were successful at conveying to participants the temporal and spatial scale of climate change, the complexity of the system and the uncertainties in our understanding of it. However, most participants felt that the computer models were less instrumental for the exploration of policy options. Furthermore, both research teams and participants agreed that despite considerable efforts, most models were not sufficiently user-friendly and transparent for being accessed in an IA focus group. With that background, some methodological conclusions are drawn about the inclusion of the computer models in the deliberation process. Furthermore, some suggestions are made about how given models should be adapted and new ones developed in order to be helpful for participatory IA.

Abstract: Decisions on which climate risks to accept and on how to use energy in the future affect every citizen's life. Public participation on these issues is necessary to find policies supported by the public. It is especially important because uncertainties about climate issues allow only descriptions in terms of subjective probabilities, invariably linked to subjective preferences. Subjective probabilities and preferences of experts can be balanced by those of ordinary citizens. IA-focus groups are a promising research method to explore citizens' views on climate change. We discuss this method and its application involving approx. 100 citizens in Switzerland. Three findings are presented. First, the discussion groups emphasize the moral dimension of man-made climate change. Second, they tend to see a future characterized by high levels of energy use as nightmarish, while they tend to see a future characterized by low levels of energy use as an attractive option. Third, while they see energy reduction as desirable, the willingness to engage in high-cost options like a hard-hitting carbon tax is practically nil. This apparent contradiction can be interpreted as follows: the possibility of major climate impacts ignites the public imagination, but subjective probabilities associated with it are rather low. Under these conditions, support for a low-energy society indicates that citizens expect such an option to be achievable at low cost. Rather than dismissing this expectation offhand as unrealistic, we argue that research on how low-cost options could lead to significant reduction in energy use would meet an important social need.

Abstract: In the beginnings of climate change policy, results from the natural sciences were essential for motivating the establishment of global change diplomacy. At present it is increasingly being recognised that these results must be combined with findings from the social sciences if effective climate policy is to emerge. In particular, participatory techniques for the involvement of stakeholders, ranging from ordinary citizens to business people, are needed. The paper presents the methodology of Integrated Assessment (IA)-Focus Groups, designed primarily for involving citizens in Integrated Assessments of complex issues like climate change. It focuses on collages produced by European IA-Focus Group participants faced with alternative possibilities of energy use. The results suggest that citizens across Europe see strong reductions of current levels of energy use as more desirable than a business-as-usual perspective. Moreover, they indicate that the opinion formation by citizens is by no means restricted to unambiguous stereotypes. We relate these findings to the concept of `reflexive modernisation', stressing the importance of uncertainty and ambiguity in environmental debates. Implications for representing uncertainty in IA models are discussed.

Abstract: This paper surveys the application of spatial models for the analysis of economic policy decisions. Three topics are reviewed: the first is how the structure of the decision-making process contributes to stable and consistent policy choices. Both aspects are decisive prerequisites for the functioning of a market economy. Second, a review of the literature on US and European Union (EU) policy choices reveals how decision rules are decisive in predicting these choices. Third, a literature on the structure of legislative decision-making shows how the understanding of bureaucratic behavior is enhanced by the analysis of the rules which determine delegated discretion.

Abstract: The paper analyzes the institutional conditions under which policymakers can credibly commit to an independent central bank and thereby mitigate the well-known time consistency problem in monetary policy. It is shown theoretically that granting independence via a statute is only credible for legislative systems with at least two heterogeneous decision-making bodies which both have veto rights (for example bicameral systems). This thesis is supported by empirical evidence: The legal independence of central banks is significantly higher in those OECD countries whose legislative processes are characterized by extensive checks and balances. Furthermore, the negative relation between legal independence and inflation is larger in countries with checks and balances than in countries without checks and balances.

Abstract: Etwas salopp gesagt, bietet die Welt seit Menschengedenken simultane Hör- und Seherlebnisse: Ich sehe einen Löwen und höre ihn brüllen - falls ich im rechten Moment am richtigen Ort bin. Im Laufe des 20. Jahrhunderts gelang es, solche simultane Hör- und Sehereignisse mit technisch produzierten Bild- und Tonaufnahmen für ein praktisch unbegrenzt grosses Massenpublikum so zu inszenieren, dass die Orts- und Zeitgebundenheit aufgehoben wurde. Heute lassen sich Töne und Bildpunkte bzw. -pixels individuell zu beliebiger Zeit generieren, beispielsweise ab einer Video-Kassette oder online über das Internet, so dass ich jederzeit einen Löwen hören und sehen könnte.

Abstract: The spread of the Internet is leading to irreversible changes in the existing structures of the economy, management and society. The aim of this long term empirical study is to document and interpret structural changes resulting from the establishment of electronic market places. Hypotheses describing these changes form the starting point for this study, and their accuracy will be tested using regular, repeated opinion surveys. The basis of this study was laid with a first extensive survey, and at intervals of two years follow-up surveys will be made.

Abstract: Ignazio Gardella ist am 16. März 1999 kurz vor seinem 95. Geburtstag in seinem Haus in Oleggio verstorben. Seine Bauten spiegeln die Entwicklung der Architektur Italiens vom Rationalismus bis heute. Gardella verfolgte keine dogmatische Theorie, sondern beteiligte sich aktiv als Doyen am architektonischen Diskurs.